Sometimes, a craps table goes cold where points and numbers just don’t hit. The normal distribution takes a crazy turn, but instead of turning in the player’s favor, it turns in the casino’s favor. For example, let’s look at flipping a coin. The normal distribution over time shows that we expect heads to appear 50% of the time and tails to appear 50% of the time. What if the short-term distribution variance shows that in the last 50 flips, 45 resulted in tails and only 5 resulted in heads. If we had bet on heads for those 50 flips, we would have lost our shirts. The same scenario holds true on a craps table. The short-term distribution variance will result in many more 7-outs than points made. If we had sm카지노 the Pass Line during that short-term variance, we would have lost our shirts. That scenario is called a “cold table.” The distribution eventually corrects itself where the variance goes in favor of the player, which is called a “hot table.” So, what do we do when the table turns ice cold? Do we simply accept it and lose all our money? Not hardly!
A cold table is easy to recognize. It’s empty, quiet, and the few people still playing look depressed. Shooter after shooter establishes a point and then immediately throws a losing 7 out.
If you stubbornly make a stand and try to fight a cold table, you’ll lose your entire allotment for that session in mere minutes. Even though each roll has a random outcome, the fact is that trends do, indeed, occur. An ice cold table is a trend against the player; whereas, a hot table is a trend with the player. Unless you adapt, playing a cold table is a miserable experience. You walk away a loser vowing to never play craps again. But it doesn’t have to be like that.
You’ll find after years of playing craps that most people insist on fighting a cold table. Why? Beats me. My only guess is that they’re stubborn or stupid, or probably both. People either beat their chests like King Kong determined to stand and fight regardless of how much they lose, or they leave the table altogether. It’s truly an amazing phenomenon. Instead of switching gears to play the cold table to their advantage, most people are so stubborn or stupid that they just won’t adapt.
Without going into volumes of statistical theory, the fact is that cold streaks appear just as hot streaks do. The key is to recognize them and adapt. For example, suppose you walk up to a table with only two people playing. It’s the only table with open spots. The other three tables are packed and people are standing on the sides waiting to play. You ask the dealer how the table is. He says it’s colder than heck. Both players at the table are playing the Pass Line. Two quick 7-outs in a row. The players cuss, moan, and complain how the craps gods never give them a break. You wonder if you want to get in on the action now, even though it’s obviously a cold table, or go to one of the other tables and wait for an open spot. Your plane just landed and your Vegas vacation just started, so you want some immediate action. You don’t want to go stand by one of the other tables and wait. You want to play now. So, do you stay at the cold table?
Suppose you’re like most people and prefer playing the Pass Line. In the above scenario, you have three options: 1) Stay, beat your chest like King Kong, fight the cold table, and probably lose, 2) Leave and wait for an open spot at another table, or 3) Stay at this cold table and adapt your play. I never choose option 1. I usually choose option 3.
Indeed, no one on Earth can ever know how the dice will fall (assuming legal dice are used). But, again, trends do occur (i.e., hot streaks and cold streaks). They just do. Once you experience a few of them, you’ll understand and be able to recognize them. So, how can you win when the distribution variance turns against the player? The answer is simple–you adapt.
Bet with the number 7 instead of against it (i.e., play the Don’t Pass instead of the Pass Line). Always keep the Don’t Pass bet in your hip pocket as a weapon against the casino when the dice are landing in casino’s favor. You might think, “That doesn’t make sense because the outcome of each roll is random and the cold streak can end at any time, and by the time I recognize a cold streak, it’ll be over.” That can, indeed, happen. But that’s why you slow down your play and become a stronger rock. During a cold streak, don’t think about winning big. Don’t even think about winning at all. Your objective is to ride out the cold streak and get back on track playing the Pass Line. Eventually the distribution variance will correct itself (i.e., the cold streak will end). You’ll recognize the correction and adapt your play again to the Pass Line. As you gain experience in recognizing trends and reversals, you’ll find yourself not only successfully riding out the cold streaks, but you might consistently come out of them a few bucks ahead.